🧭 Morning Brief: Israel & Iran Business Pulse – June 26, 2025
“Economic Ripples of Conflict: Israel Resumes Gas, Iran Offsets Sanctions”
1. Israel Leviathan Field Restarts, Energy Money Taps Again
After nearly two weeks of inactivity due to the war with Hamas, Israel reopened their Leviathan offshore natural gas field late on June 25
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reuters.com. With the Karish field, the stoppage will hurt:
About 12 bcm yearly from the wells, with a rise to ~14 bcm next year;
Gas being exported to Egypt and Jordan, where mid-term Israel has spare capacity that is essential to regional markets; and
A favorable impact on tax revenues and stability in the sector.
Egypt relies on Israeli gas for 15–20% of its gas consumed to get some power made. Egypt has restarted fertilizer plants that were closed because of gas outages, and exports could reach levels by this weekend
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Takeaway: Israel is back in the business of vital big exports, restoring a measure of national energy revenues and potential regional trade.
2. Israeli Economic Sanctions Aim at Iran’s Banking System
Israel’s government officially named Iran’s central bank, two commercial banks, and a military-run energy company as terrorists on June 25 — moving to freeze their assets and manipulate the sources of financing tied to Iran’s proxy groups, such as Hamas and Hezbollah
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Why it matters:
Stops cross-border flows of money associated with financing militant operations.
Adds even more difficulty to conducting banking services for any entity engaged with Iran.
Communicates Israel’s plan of economic pressure in addition to military pressure.
Wider impact: This creates new threshold risk for global banks and businesses. Expect heightened scrutiny around Iran-based transactions.
3. Iran on the Brink of Economic Collapse, Looks for Sanctions Relief
Iran is currently also experiencing double digit inflation (~40%) and capital flight, leading to heightened calls for sanctions relief after an apparent ceasefire with Israel
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. Reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian and U.S.-educated Economy Minister Seyed Ali Madanizadeh appear to be exploring potential ways to change the economic fortunes of their country. However, there are certain challenges:
Supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei still has the final say on nuclear issues.
Shadow banking groups, Iranian Revolutionary Guard-controlled sectors, and funding requirements for proxies continue to limit reforms.
Internal disputes over
4. U.S. Signals Shift on Iran Sanctions Post-Ceasefire
Former U.S. President Trump indicated a potential future easing of enforcement of oil sanctions on Iran to facilitate reconstruction following the ceasefire
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Official statements repeated “maximum pressure” is still in place but, diplomatic space seems possible.
The enforcement itself may ultimately lighten, especially where China is concerned (now Irans’ largest oil customer).
Analysists believe this may enable pathways for Chinese-Iranian energy deals, but also would make it difficult for the West to coordinate sanctions.
Takeaway: Keep an eye on whether this is a substantive pivot to re-engagement with Iran or simply more leverage as part of an ongoing negotiating process.
5. Iran Changes Oil Export Tactics — Shadow Fleets Booming
Iran has maintained its oil loadings of ~2.2 mbd by June 19—its highest in five weeks—despite conflict and sanctions, with ~1.7 mbd destining to China as part of an opaque “shadow fleet”
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Iran uses Kharg Island and jetties or offshore fleets near Asia to circumvent sanctions.
The strategic “re-provisioning” of “floating storage” tanks near China and Singapore re-enables uninterrupted export flows.
Insight: Iran’s ability to extract oil against all odds re-emphasizes its importance to global markets – even limited Western sanctions have not fully severed connections with China or India.
6. Russia’s VTB Readies, But Halts Iran Banking Push
VTB Bank, Russia’s second-largest lender, announced its intention to open a branch in Iran, but paused its efforts with the ongoing conflict.
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A VTB representative office has existed since 2023, but plans to obtain a full banking licence have been paused while the fighting continues.
VTB has acknowledged that the trade volume with Iran will massively increase under the new EEU-Iran FTA also targeting $6 bn.
Currency controls are an issue, and political instability is affecting overall trade volumes.
Market impact: VTB’s pause for now highlights mirrored elements of risk aversion across financial markets. While it will retain its longer-term vision to develop meaningful cooperation with Iran.
7. Iran’s IAEA Suspension Trial Could Pause Nuclear Reporting
Iran’s parliament unanimously passed a law to suspend cooperation with the IAEA unless the IAEA confirms its nuclear sites are ‘secure’
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This will interfere with any damage assessments on either Israeli or U.S. strikes and would spill into any UN actions or snapback sanctions.
The move aligns with Iran consolidating its hard-line strategy in advance of any future nuclear negotiation
Implication: The value of having limited transparency with international markets has a risk of Iran becoming increasing politically isolated with commercial implications arising from this.
📌 Turning Points & Trade-Offs
For Israel: The restoration of energy export capacity enhances budgets and geopolitical weight. The financial sanction route aims to restrict assets in opposition to its adversaries.
For Iran: Containment of economic crisis must be weighed against ideological commitments. Oil revenues are still strong thanks to black-market exports and oil is being accounted as strong revenues, while structural reforms remain more about policy than crisis-response.
For Global Actors: U.S. alludes to sanctions flexibility colliding with hardline designations of Israel. The energy markets in the Middle East remains in chaos, and any revenues on resumed or further oil flows of Iran will suppress pricing returns for consumers on a global scale, but potentially dismay proponents of sanctions.
Collective Takeaways for Business Stakeholders
Trend Implication Affected Areas
Israeli gas export restart Opportunities in energy infrastructure, taxes, regional partnerships Energy, utilities, fiscal planning
Iran bank/central bank blacklisting Increased compliance costs, risk of banking/transaction Finance, international operations firms
Iran retains oil exports Downward pressure on oil prices, altering supply chain for consumers Oil & gas trading, shipping networks
Uncertainty in sanctions policy Uncertain future investment environment Multinationals, insurers, compliance teams
Iran ceases cooperation with IAEA Risk of sudden sanctions or regulatory shock Oil investment, financial services
Russia–Iran financial corridor Updating trade routes for potential expansion Russian banks, Eurasian trade
Recommendations & Risks
Energy companies in the region should track exports from Leviathan & Karish as demand signals from Egypt and Jordan may stem the tide of new contracts.
Banks and MNCs need to adjust risk management practices and screening processes in compliance with Israel’s new terror-labeled designations.
Oil traders should develop risk-heavy assignments surrounding Iranian shadow fleet flow since potential volatility will likely materialize regarding enforcement of existing U.S. sanctions.
Investors in Iran-bound markets should examine risks under scenarios involving: rollback to sanctions or renewed tensions over the nuclear landscape.
Compliance departments should prepare for volatile policy developments to be likely changes—especially in light of a potential UN action resulting from the IAEA’s disengagement.
What to Watch Over the Next Few Days
US clarifications on oil sanction waivers with entities engaging Iran.
Implementation timelines/updates to Israeli financial freeze orders.
Energy flow data on produce from Leviathan & Karish and downstream impacts.
IAEA/UN response to Tehran’s freeze in cooperation—may have bearing on sanctions.
VTB’s timeline for initiating their Iranian operations after the conflict.
Summary
On June 26, the battlefield for businesses between Israel and Iran remains crafted by the conflict-remake: Israel resets gas exports and tightens financial sanctions, while Iran defies diplomatic barriers with innovative transport solutions to fight back against economic collapse. There are important developments to monitor in the near-term as the next stage will be determined by potential shifts in sanctions policy, re-establishing financial flows, and a focus on global oversight of nuclear programs.
