Description
Today, June 30, 2025, is a significant day in the world of business, as markets prepare for political transformations, green financing rapidly expands in Europe and Asia, and innovation, energy, and reforms in policy have already been adopted in newer economies like Kenya. Here is a roundup of today’s most important developments that are shaping the future of trade, investment, and economic direction.
NOTE:
The headwinds of political uncertainty in the U.S., the ongoing inflationary cycle, and ongoing economic rebalancing overlaid international markets during the first half of 2025 and those blended into the monthly high-volume ETF’s USD relative to volatility based upon market cap-weighted indexes, there has been a retroactive decline in the U.S. tech-heavy “Magnificent 7”, and a big jump up in Chinese tech and gold.
Highlights:
The debt levels in the U.S. continue to retrofit worry into investors
Meaning: investors are starting to shift their attention to new opportunities in Chinese defense tech while reopening relationships with the green industry EU.,
🇺🇸 2. Trump
and Tariffs and Trade Deals- OFFERING CD$200 million in financing in return for 10+ million Electric Vehicles, approx. 70,000 Canadian Auto Related Jobs- This is a pivotal moment for Trump and his campaign as he re-engages with his protectionist trade policy and introduced new tariffs, such as: 25% tariffs on iPhones made outside the United States., 50% tariffs on items from the European Union. Trump and Nippon Steel have together announced a deal with the expectation of adding over 70,000 in jobs while providing U.S. steel with a production increase, and this is the dynamic that could reshape global supply chains and manufacturing practices in the U.S.
🏦 3. U.S. Economy Focus: Bifurcation Risk and Fed Policy
According to Bank of America, the Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates will be based on how the labor market performs this summer.
There are two potential outcomes:
Positive job data in the Summer: Rates will be unchanged.
Weak job data in the Summer: Fed could cut rates by as much as 75 basis points in advance of September meeting.
The markets are anticipating some potential component or “breakage” in the economy that may cause a serious change in how people invest.
🇨🇳 4. U.S.-China Trade Tensions/Crisis Shift into Rare Earths Agreement
China after series of trade discussions and negotiations in Geneva and London, has agreed to loosen its export controls on rare earths elements for 90 days, which opens the door for additional negotiations.
Mainstream media seems excited as:
China is open to teaming with the EU, Japan and Australia.
Even though China is going through internal economic deflation,” Beijing sees that as an opportunity to gain trust from the world.
♻️ 5. Green Financing is catching on in Europe and Asia
While the U.S. is losing interest in green investment, London has emerged a leader in sustainable finance, and companies have increasingly favored using EU and Asian market sectors to do ESG investing.
Important Notes:
Overall, over 75% of new ESG capital flows are going internationally outside the U.S.
UK real estate and climate-oupstart companies have received the greatest influx of capital.
Kenya Business Round-Up: Innovation, Banking & Energy
💳 6.1. Financial Services
– Absa Bank Kenya launched a custody service for institutional clients.
– Co-op Bank and Finsco Africa are partnering to increase availability of affordable mortgages.
– Stanbic Bank issued KSh 500 million green loans to fund solar initiatives.
💻 6.2. Technology & Startups
Safaricom and iXAfrica partnership will enable build-out of AI data infrastructure.
– Two Kenyan startups accepted to Google for Startups Accelerator Africa Class 9 shows that Kenya is going in the right direction as an innovation hub.
⚖️ 6.3. Regulatory & Political Developments
– President Ruto at Jomo Kenyatta International Airport on June 25 signed Finance Bill 2025 which has ushered in extensive tax reforms for all corporates in Kenya.
– Social unrest is mounting with protests which began on June 9 continuing resulting in deaths and arrests.
🌾 6.4. Agriculture & Renewable Energy
– Kakuzi Plc continues to grow sustainable farming efforts in Murang’a County.
– Menengai II Geothermal Plant (35 MW) will be operational later this year bringing much needed clean energy for Kenya as a part of the country’s clean energy profile.
🔍 7. Strategic Insight: Wanting Opportunities
Opportunities:
– Tech Growth: Kenya’s “Silicon Savannah” continues to draw on a global scale with partnerships like Safaricom–Google and Konza Technopolis.
– Clean Energy: Investment in both geothermal and solar energy in Kenya implies a long term pivot to sustainability.
– Green Finance: Europe’s and Asia’s emerging dominance in the global ESG ecosystem with London continuing green growth at a disjointed juncture and soon post Brexit.
Risks:
Policy Changes: The United States imposing tariff policies and Kenya’s tax policy changes might inject volatility to certain sectors.
Social Protest: Populist protests in Kenya suggest a call for planning policy that is more inclusive.
Trade Policy: Tariff conflicts between U.S.–China and U.S.–EU will negatively affect exports from emerging markets, like Kenya.
📝 Conclusion
As the wailing bells of the trading day signaled the end of the day on June 30, 2025, we were fearfully hopeful. Global markets are to hit the reset button economically and politically, and the continent (specifically Kenya) is gearing up for big investments related to finance, technology and sustainability.
As for businesses, there are a few things to take into account,
Expect volatility.
Hop on the green investment trend.
Get ready to closely follow geopolitical trade trends.
